On "Wet Work," Assassinations, and Olivia Wilde

StrategyPage.com has a brief post noting the apparent prevalence of assassinations against individuals who could potentially embarrass the Russian government, suggesting that the old Soviet "wet work" teams are back in action.  This piece is instructive in demonstrating the difference between strategic manhunts (the overt deployment of uniformed personnel to kill or capture an individual) versus assassinations (the deployment of covert personnel during peacetime to kill an individual), the presumed actions being an example of the latter.

Remembering these definitional distinctions is important when considering the op-ed by Andrew Cockburn in today's Los Angeles Times arguing that the U.S. "assassination" campaign is "unequivocally" ineffective.  Cockburn, whom I respect as an on-the-ground reporter, intentionally (but incorrectly) conflates assassinations with targeted killings, which is the systematic targeting of individuals in a network or command structure that is already in a declared state of war against U.S. forces.  Cockburn's argumentation is really weak, relying on one piece of data from a study on IEDs in Iraq.  Yes, it is true that IED incidents increased in the immediate aftermath of an IED-cell leader's killing in 2008, but he says nothing of the long-term effects of such operations, as IED attacks undeniably declined in Iraq over the course of the Surge.  Moreover, a statistical anecdote about combating IED cells in Iraq in 2008 is not necessarily applicable to the hunt for bin Laden, the targeted killings of Anwar al-Awlaki, or various other Pakistani Taliban leaders that Cockburn cites at the beginning of his essay.  Cockburn also ignores evidence that special operations raids in Afghanistan have had a demonstrable effect on the Taliban's operational capability, which has consequently shifted towards assassinations and IEDs rather than occupying territory.  Whether that will be enough to win strategically is a separate issue, and one that in the long-run depends more upon Afghan governance capability and Pakistani safe havens than our operational successes or failures.  But Cockburn is horrifically select in his use of evidence to fit his preconceived conclusions.

So why bother to post about such a poorly argued, badly biased article?  Simple.  It gives me an excuse to post pictures of Mr. Cockburn's daughter, the lovely and talented actress Olivia Wilde.  (Don't worry, all images are SFW.  This is an intellectual blog, after all!)

No, really, this DOES have something to do with strategic manhunts, I swear!