Debating the Drone Wars

Two pieces appeared last weekend raising questions about the U.S. global targeted killings campaign against al-Qa'ida and its affiliates.

In the Los Angeles Times, Doyle McManus asks "Who Reviews the U.S. Kill List?", citing the lack of transparency regarding how the CIA selects targets for drone strikes.  Although I'm reasonably confident that virtually all such strikes are justified, it is not unreasonable to suggest there be greater pre-attack Congressional oversight when the government seeks to target an American citizen. 

On Sunday, the London Sunday Times published "Bureau of Investigative Journalism" (BIJ)'s claim that between 282-535 civilians have been killed by drone strikes during the Obama administration, including more than 60 children.  The BIJ also claims that at least ten times rescuers have been targeted in follow-on strikes, and that U.S. drones have struck funerals as well.

While potentially troubling, this report should be taken with a grain of salt.  Drone strikes occur in regions of Pakistan generally unaccessible to Western journalists, so these reports inevitably rely on unverifiable local sources who may have an incentive to boost the civilian casualty figures.  Even if journalists did have access to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the extremists targeted by these strikes do not wear uniforms, making it extremely difficult to differentiate between tribal fighters and civilians in the wake of an attack.  Moreover, senior leaders of these terror networks frequently surround themselves with civilians specifically in the hopes of deterring a U.S. strike.  In such a case, the laws of war place moral culpability for civilian casualties on the the targeted leader using them as shields rather than on the attacker.

To be sure, there undoubtedly have been collateral deaths as a result of our targeted killing campaign in the FATA.  Even if we accept the New America Foundation's lower estimate of 145-313 civilian deaths over the same time period as the BIJ report, it reasonable to say that roughly 300 civilians have been killed over this time.  Yet when one looks at the history of warfare or considers the number of civilians likely to be killed in a terrorist strike emanating from the FATA (i.e. the Tehrik-i-Taliban's attempted car bombing of Times Square in May 2010), 100 civilians killed per year -- although tragic for those families -- is not a particularly remarkable figure.

That being said, if rescuers or funerals are being intentionally targeted, this is problematic both from a legal and strategic perspective, as it risks exacerbating a backlash by Pakistanis not aligned with the terror networks whose cooperation is necessary for targeting certain groups.  But again, given that the reports are dependent upon "local researchers," there is absolutely no way to verify these claims.