Happy Anniversary (Okay, Not Really) Ayman al-Zawahiri!

Two years ago today Ayman al-Zawahiri was formally named Osama bin Laden's successor as leader of al-Qa'ida, and hence became arguably the number one target of U.S. forces in the War on Terror.

How is the not-so-good doctor (Zawahiri was a physician prior to taking up jihad full-time) fairing?

According to CNN's Peter Bergen, Zawahiri's May 23 memo to the leaders of the Iraqi and Syrian wings of al-Qa’ida, in which he ordered the merger of the two branches to be dissolved, “demonstrates Zawahiri considers himself and the al Qa’ida core to be still relevant and very much in charge of the global jihadist movement.”

At the end of the article, Bergen hedges a bit, noting: “It isn’t clear to what extent al-Qa’ida’s affiliates in Syria and Iraq will actually pay attention to the directives from Zawahiri.” This is prescient of Bergen, as yesterday the Associated Press reported: AL QAEDA’S LEADER IN IRAQ DEFIES BOSS OVER SYRIA FIGHT. AP quotes Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as saying: “The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant will continue. We will not compromise and we will not give up.”

In other words, although al-Qa’ida core still exists and still believes it is operationally relevant, without the unifying figure of bin Laden it is having a difficult time combating the centrifugal pressures that is leading to splits such as the one in Iraq/Syria, and Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s split from AQIM.

As I've noted before, it is unclear whether such a fragmentation would make the various splinter groups more dangerous from an operational standpoint, or less threatening from a strategic standpoint due to the inability to coordinate operations.

Sorry, Ayman, no one said being in charge was easy.