The allegation that Osama bin Laden was not apprehended in timely fashion because of insufficient troops deployed to Tora Bora is belied by the experience of a dozen strategic manhunts involving deployment of U.S. forces dating back to 1885-86. In fact, the need for surprise often means smaller forces are the ideal. Moreover, the human terrain is a bigger factor than the physical terrain. The views of the native population shape three variables that largely determine the success of strategic manhunts: human intelligence, help from indigenous forces, and whether the object of the hunt can find sanctuary by crossing a border. These factors were against U.S. forces in December 2001. The key would have been stronger links with Pashtun resources.I actually submitted this back in November 2011, and assumed it had been rejected until the editors contacted me this February saying it had been accepted but was still under security review. What appears in JFQ is the redacted version, as DOD decided they couldn't release some details that Langley had already cleared for publication in Gary Berntsen and George Tenet's memoirs. Then again, if the AP is correct, apparently members of the Obama administration have had a problem keeping details of the hunt for bin Laden secret, at least when it came to Hollywood directors/writers.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
"Tora Bora Reconsidered" in Joint Forces Quarterly
My article, "Tora Bora Reconsidered: Lessons from 125 Years of Strategic Manhunts" in the forthcoming (July 2013) issue of Joint Forces Quarterly has been posted online. (The journal itself comes out next week). As the abstract notes:
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