Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Al-Qa'ida Gaining Strength in Syria?

Yes, according to David Shedd, deputy director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, who over the weekend told the Aspen Security Forum: "It is very clear over the last two years they have grown in size, grown in capability and ruthlessly grown in effectiveness. Their ability to take the fight to the regime and Hezbollah in a very direct way has been, among those groups, the most effect."

Shedd said at least 1,200 rebel factions have been identified in Syria, and that the U.S. ability to distinguish "good guys" from "bad guys" inside Syria was limited.

An example of these fissures and the confusion they spawn was demonstrated last week in Ras al-Ain. On Thursday it was reported that Kurdish militias had seized control of the Syrian town on the Turkish border, and that fighting between them and Islamist fighters from the al-Nusra Front over control of the areas oil fields has erupted. At first, one might be inclined to simply say:
Kurds = Good
But Ras al-Ain was captured by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), a Syrian Kurdish party with links to the Kuridstan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has committed numerous terrorist attacks in its fight autonomy in Turkey. Although we love the Iraqi Kurds, U.S. policy has generally tended towards:
PKK Kurds = Bad
And given that the violence on the border -- to include two RPGs from Syria striking a border post on the Turkish side of the frontier -- threatens to provoke Turkish intervention, we are left with:
PYD = ???, but 
PYD > al-Nusra Front, Bashar Assad, Hezbollah, etc.
Probably.

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