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| Miguel Angel Trevino Morales' mugshot was released yesterday. (Mexican Navy, via Associated Press) |
Three relevant pieces on Monday’s capture of Mexican drug cartel Los Zetas kingpin Miguel Angel Trevino Morales worth reading for new details of the operation and analysis of whether the decapitation campaign against the Zetas will have any strategic effect.
The Associated Press notes that Trevino Morales is “at least the eighth capture or killing of a high-ranking cartel leader since 2011,” as Mexican president Pena Nieto continues his predecessor’s strategy of decapitating the cartels. Although Trevino Morales’ brother is expected to succeed him, the AP cites experts who warn that this could lead to a fragmentation of the gang into a less-hierarchical organization, and that consequently more violence may result in the ensuing power struggles. Even if the Zetas in their current form are crippled, this only strengthens Mexico’s most-wanted man, Sinaloa cartel head Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.”
The New York Times provides more details on the capture operation, and notes the possibility of U.S. involvement. Despite Mexican sensitivity regarding U.S. influence on its security agencies,
The Associated Press notes that Trevino Morales is “at least the eighth capture or killing of a high-ranking cartel leader since 2011,” as Mexican president Pena Nieto continues his predecessor’s strategy of decapitating the cartels. Although Trevino Morales’ brother is expected to succeed him, the AP cites experts who warn that this could lead to a fragmentation of the gang into a less-hierarchical organization, and that consequently more violence may result in the ensuing power struggles. Even if the Zetas in their current form are crippled, this only strengthens Mexico’s most-wanted man, Sinaloa cartel head Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.”
The New York Times provides more details on the capture operation, and notes the possibility of U.S. involvement. Despite Mexican sensitivity regarding U.S. influence on its security agencies,
"The two governments began sharing information on Mr. Trevino several months ago, with the Americans passing along word of the birth of Mr. Trevino’s child a little more than a month ago . . . . The Americans also shared the information that he appeared to be making trips to visit the baby in the Nuevo Laredo area, near where he was captured. . .
“The authorities traded intelligence gleaned from conversations caught on wiretaps and informants’ tips that led Mexican authorities to Mr. Trevino’s truck, moving before dawn on a highway near the border, the official said. Mexican marines in a helicopter intercepted Mr. Trevino and arrested him and two aides without a shot.”
Finally, Nathan Jones observes in the Houston Chronicle that yesterday’s operation “demonstrates the continued potency of the Mexican Navy when it comes to capturing or killing kingpins or high-value targets,” but notes the potential for increased violence if the Sinaloa cartel and its allies sense weakness within the Zeta network.
Even if the operational success of capturing Trevino Morales does not lead to immediate strategic success in terms of violence or volume of drug trafficking, in the words of a U.S. Ranger en route to capture another drug kingpin (Manuel Noriega) in 1989, “If anybody deserved to be slammed, he was the one.” Trevino Morales is believed responsible for the massacre of at least 265 migrants, amongst other charges of murder, torture, and trafficking. He was also known for his favorite terror technique, the “guiso,” or stew, in which his enemies would be placed in 55-gallon drums and burned alive. So regardless of whether the attack on the broader Zeta network is successful, or whether the broader conditions in Mexico will allow for a drop in violence, Trevino Morales [again, in the Ranger’s words] “deserved to be got.”
Even if the operational success of capturing Trevino Morales does not lead to immediate strategic success in terms of violence or volume of drug trafficking, in the words of a U.S. Ranger en route to capture another drug kingpin (Manuel Noriega) in 1989, “If anybody deserved to be slammed, he was the one.” Trevino Morales is believed responsible for the massacre of at least 265 migrants, amongst other charges of murder, torture, and trafficking. He was also known for his favorite terror technique, the “guiso,” or stew, in which his enemies would be placed in 55-gallon drums and burned alive. So regardless of whether the attack on the broader Zeta network is successful, or whether the broader conditions in Mexico will allow for a drop in violence, Trevino Morales [again, in the Ranger’s words] “deserved to be got.”
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