Where Will al-Qa'ida Emerge Next?

With a great deal of attention being paid to the resurgence of al-Qa'ida in Iraq, and the rise to prominence of al-Qa'ida affiliates in Syria, it is worth asking what other geographic areas may be ripe for al-Qa'ida expansion.

In the piece I cited earlier this week, Bruce Reidel writes: "The al Qaeda group has also begun spreading its influence into Lebanon as well. One well-informed observer reports that “from Tripoli to Akkar, and from Sidon to the heart of Beirut, black Salafi-jihadi flags and banners have been spotted in increasing numbers, a picture unseen before in Lebanon’s history.” Jamie Dettmer follows up on the spread of al-Qa'ida activities in Lebanon in this piece from Monday's Daily Beast.

Another possibility suggested by Sara Sorcher in the National Journal is the Sinai Peninsula. She writes: "Islamist militants are making their home in the rough terrain stippled with caves, launching near-daily attacks on Egypt's military and its police." Aviv Oreg, the former chief of the Israeli military intelligence's global jihad desk, calls that tough terrain "the Tora Bora of the Sinai Peninsula," and Sorcher puts the number of militants operating in the region at 2,000. (By comparison, it is believed that 4,000 Arabs total participated in the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s).

It is always possible that journalists are jumping the gun by trying to declare a region "the next big thing" for al-Qa'ida before everyone else. (I remember attending a conference in 2004 when a reporter from The New Republic argued that the United States had to intervene in Sierra Leone before it became a sanctuary for al-Qa'ida). But this also may illustrate that there a frightening number of ungoverned, or weekly governed territories in the world where the terrorist network can dig in and exploit a local vacuum.