Headline of the Day

From The Washington Post: U.S. Air Force Secretly Flying Armed Missions From Drone Base in Ethiopia.

Well, thanks to the WaPo, it is not secret anymore.

In the immortal words of Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

Mr. Vizzini, Senior Editor at the Washington Post

On HUMINT and the Mexican Cartels

When I was speaking at the Naval War College last week, a Mexican Fellow at the NWC asked whether I thought the U.S. would start targeting leaders of the Mexican drug cartels in strategic manhunts.  I said "No," but relied more upon the definitional distinction that Mexican law prohibits U.S. military personnel from overtly operating on Mexican soil in way necessary to meet the standards of a strategic manhunt.  I consciously avoided the question of whether our law enforcement agencies were targeting the cartel leaders, partly because it falls out of the purview of my work, and -- to be honest -- partly because I just don't know that much about the topic.

Coincidentally, on Monday The New York Times had an interesting article on how U.S. agencies are infiltrating the Mexican drug cartels.  Specifically, the Times reports that by building up large networks of Mexican informants, U.S. law enforcement agencies "have helped Mexican authorities capture or kill about two dozen high-ranking and midlevel drug traffickers."  The article cites Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution, who says that even in an age of high-tech surveillance there is no substitute for human sources' feeding authorities everything from what targeted traffickers like to eat to where they sleep most nights.

In other words, even if these operations don't meet my definition of a strategic manhunt (i.e. there is no overt deployment of U.S. military personnel targeting one individual), this appears to support the conclusions of my book, namely that HUMINT still trumps technical surveillance in kill/capture operations, and that the "human terrain" is key (i.e. cooperation of indigenous forces and the local population/members of the target's network).

Two Qaddafi Post-Scripts

Well, with Moammar Qaddafi buried in a secret location, it's time to clean out my inbox of some articles that I never got around to posting.

First, a Reuters piece from September 20  in which the fugitive dictator taunts NATO, saying "The bombs of NATO planes won't last."  I'm just waiting for a NATO spokesperson to respond by simply saying: "SCOREBOARD!"  (Okay, I suppose Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's comment, "We came, we saw, he died" made the same indelicate point).

Second, an interesting piece from The Daily Caller (via The Economist) posing the critical question: "Is (Was) Qaddafi Jewish?"  And if so, where should we send the bagels and lox (or a fruit basket, perhaps)to whomever is sitting shiva for him?

Qaddafi's Killer?

A Libyan fighter, Senad el Sadik el Ureybi, has told a Russian television network that he personally killed Qaddafi, shooting "him twice, in the head and in the chest.

The video is available here.

Again, I have absolutely no way to verify these claims, but pass them along for your information.  (Incidentally, it is ironic that this network interviews Professor Benjamin Barber, who before Qaddafi's overthrow received payments from the Libyan government (through an American PR firm) for positive public relations on behalf of the dictator).

Seif al-Islam Captured?

Last night NBC reported that Libyan rebels claimed to have captured Seif al-Islam Qaddafi had been captured.  I haven't seen any confirmation of this yet, but will keep checking the wires throughout the day.

A sad irony of the Arab Spring is that many of the heir apparents of some autocrats, i.e. Gamal Mubarak and Seif al-Islam, were genuine reformists who advocated the modernization of their countries' economies and increased freedoms for their populations.  But when the revolution came, at least in Seif al-Islam's case -- to the best of my knowledge Gamal hasn't been implicated in any crimes -- family loyalty trumped his other principles and he may have been an accomplice to the massacre of civilian demonstrators.

Qaddafi's Last Days/Words

The New York Times has a story based largely on the account of Qaddafi's cousin and aide, Mansour Dhao Ibrahim, detailing the deposed tyrant's final days as a fugitive.  The most interesting detail? Perhaps that Qaddafi and his son Muatassim's bodies are being displayed to the public in a meat locker in a shopping mall in Misrata.

MSNBC's report also includes this detail, as well as an account of Qaddafi's apparent last words to his captors:  "Do you know right from wrong?"  This is nowhere near as impressive as Che Guevara's final statement of "Know that you are killing a man!"*, but the Colonel's epigram likely will never be surpassed on the irony meter.

COL Qaddafi's body is on display at a Libyan shopping mall, apparently between the Target and Blood Bath and Beyond

* There is actually some dispute as to whether Che said: "You are killing a man!" in defiance, or "You are only killing a man" because the soldier who drew the straw to execute him was hesitant to shoot an unarmed prisoner.

Qaddafi's Last Stand [Updated w/Photo]

Reuters has a more detailed account of Qaddafi's last minutes that seems to reconcile some of the discrepancies from previous accounts.

If this story is accurate, then Qaddafi's convoy was bombed (likely by a Predator drone) as it fled Sirte.  He and his entourage took cover in some drainage pipes, from which they engaged in a firefight with NTC forces.  He was either wounded in the aerial attack or the firefight (possibly by one of his own men . . . don't laugh, as one of Pancho Villa's men shot him from behind during the first month of the 1916 Punitive Expedition), at which point he was pulled out of the pipes and taken into rebel custody, where the cell phone videos we saw yesterday began.

Whether he ultimately died from the wounds incurred in these attacks, or was summarily executed by the rebels, we may never know.



The drainage pipes in which Qaddafi took cover from an air strike and from which he was extracted by NTC forces.

UPDATE II: CBS has posted a story on Qaddafi's last moments as well, although it is a little less certain as to the timeline of events.