Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Meanwhile, in Pakistan (January 2012 edition)

An interesting report from Reuters claiming how a network of Pakistani "spotters" are assisting in U.S. drone strikes in Waziristan.  Two major caveats to this story:
  1. First, the headline is misleading, as stating "How Pakistan Helps the U.S. Drone Campaign" implies this cooperation is officially sanctioned by the ISI or other senior elements of the Pakistani army.  Although the story alludes to Pakistani and U.S. intelligence officers meeting to determine whom to target, this does not imply similar Pakistani control over the spotters who locate these targets.  In other words, it is entirely possible that these may be operatives recruited by our intelligence agencies for observation/targeting purposes wholly outside the Pakistani military's chain of command, as was the case with the local agents who assisted in intelligence collection leading up to SEAL Team Six's Abbottabad raid (and whom were subsequently arrested by the ISI).  They could be officially sanctioned, but I don't think the case made by the reporter's sole Pakistani source support the certainty of the headline.
  2. Second, in the bottom half of the story, the reporter notes: "It was impossible to verify the [Pakistani] source's claims and American experts, who decline to discuss the drone program, say the Pakistanis' cooperation has been less helpful in the past."  In other words, the entire report should be taken with a grain of salt.
Yet even if the reporting here may be dubious, clearly our targeting efforts are reliant on some indigenous support, as it is highly improbable to think that U.S. personnel could travel in Pakistan's tribal areas with the freedom of movement necessary to execute this campaign.

In the meantime, last Thursday it was announced that Aslam Awan, a "senior operations organizer" for al-Qa'ida was killed in a drone strike on January 10.  This was a separate operation from the January 12 strike that was intially alleged to have killed Hakimullah Mehsud, a claim that Pakistani officials have stepped away from since the early reports.

My apologies if my lag in posting created any confusion on this point.

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