Wednesday, March 27, 2013

No, Who REALLY Shot Bin Laden???

Two pieces today (by Peter Bergen on CNN.com and in The Hill) reporting on SEAL Team Six members calling shenanigans on Esquire's account of the Abbottabad raid, based upon "The Shooter"'s version of events. Today's accounts largely conform to what an anonymous SEAL wrote on Brandon Webb's blog, a reputable source of information on the SOF community.

Numerous Navy, SOCOM, and Veterans Affairs' spokespeople have already poked holes in reporter Phil Bronstein's claim that "The Shooter" has been abandoned by the military and is now unemployed and ineligible to receive health benefits. But if Webb and Bergen's SEAL sources are correct, the puzzle becomes clearer . . . well, at least a little bit. If the "The Shooter" was indeed fired from the DevGru due to repeated indiscretions regarding Operation Neptune Spear, it is understandable why he would want to get out before reaching the 20-year mark for full retirement benefits, and why he'd want to stick it to the Navy and SOCOM by making false claims about his benefits.  Moreover, the new SEAL speaking anonymously would appear to largely corroborate "Mark Owen"'s account of the raid in No Easy Day.

Again, I say "a little bit" clearer because we are still talking about a "He Said/He Said" situation between anonymous sources, neither which version can be corroborated without reliance on more anonymous sources. But while I respect and appreciate "The Shooter"'s service (which extends beyond any tall tales he may tell about Abbottabad), "Mark Owen" and the third SEAL's account is more plausible from a tactical angle. Additionally, for my money Bergen comes off as more credible than Bronstein (who is not a bad reporter by any means), given the depth of his experience on the topic and that he isn't also trying to push an alternate angle to the story that would be embarrassing to the military for allegedly abandoning a hero (which isn't to say the VA isn't a hot mess a lot of the time in providing veterans with services).

Regardless, one reads all these accounts and comes away amazed at the tactical acumen, selfless courage, and incredible discipline of "The Point Man," who likely got off the fatal shot on Osama Bin Laden, subsequently used his body to shield his teammates from potential suicide belts on bin Laden's wives (which they fortunately were not wearing), and perhaps more amazing, has managed to remain silent about these events to this day.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Today in Manhunting History (Special Anniversary Edition) -- March 19, 2003: The Dora Farms Mission

(Originally posted March 19, 2012, but reposted in conjunction with all the 10th anniversary remembrances of the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom)
 
After months of steady military buildup in the Persian Gulf region and Sisyphean diplomacy at the United Nations, on March 17, 2003, President George W. Bush announced that Saddam could avoid war under one condition: if he and his sons left Iraq within 48 hours. Speaking from the White House following a meeting abroad with allied leaders, Bush declared: “The decades of deceit and cruelty have now reached an end,” and that if Saddam and his sons did not accept this final offer, their refusal “will result in military conflict.” The intricately planned military timetable for “D-Day” – which involved commando raids, the beginning of the “Shock and Awe” air strikes, and the ground invasion led by the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force and the Army’s V Corps – was synchronized with the expiration of President Bush’s deadline.

The next day on March 18, however, a CIA source learned of a possible meeting that night at Dora Farms, an estate owned by Saddam’s wife southeast of Baghdad on the bank of the Tigris River. Although it was unclear who would be present, indications were that Saddam’s sons Uday and Qusay, and perhaps the entire family, might be planning a meeting there to discuss what to do if the Coalition invaded. “At that point,” CIA Director George Tenet recalled, “we ordered U.S. overhead reconnaissance to examine the site closely. What we saw was a large contingent of security vehicles, precisely the kinds that would typically precede and accompany Saddam’s movements, hidden under trees at the farm.” Sometime after 12:30 PM (8:30PM Baghdad time) the CIA’s source on the scene reported Uday and Qusay were definitely at the farm, that he had actually seen Saddam, and that the dictator would be returning to spend the night with his sons sometime between 3-3:30 AM Baghdad time. Tenet told the President’s war cabinet: “It’s as good as it gets. I can’t give you 100 percent assurance, but this is as good as it gets.”

Given CENTCOM’s elaborate plan of attack, attempting to strike Dora Farms posed a significant risk. If Saddam was not present, the United States would be telegraphing that a major air and ground attack was forthcoming, thereby forfeiting strategic surprise. Yet when President Bush met with his war cabinet that afternoon, all of Bush’s advisors recommended the strike, with Secretary of State Colin Powell saying: “If we’ve got a chance to decapitate them, it’s worth it.”

The latest information indicated that while at Dora Farms Saddam would be staying in a manzul, an Arabic word that could be translated either as “place of refuge” or “basement/bunker.” If there were a bunker at Dora Farms, cruise missiles would not be able to take it out. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Richard Meyers called CENTCOM commander General Tommy Franks on a secure phone. Could a stealth fighter be loaded with EGBU-27 bunker busting bombs in time for the attack?

“Absolutely not,” Franks replied. “We don’t have the F-117 ready to go.” Franks checked further, however, and learned that the Air Force been following the intelligence and had prepared the planes at Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. Franks sent word to the White House that an attack would indeed be possible.

There was one important tactical problem, however. To execute the mission the F-117s would have to fly into the heart of Iraq’s air defenses, which surrounded the capital with surface-to-air missile sites and antiaircraft artillery. Although F-117s are virtually invisible to radar and ground observers while flying at night at high altitude, in daylight they become relatively slow, defenseless targets. According to the weather and light data, first twilight – when aircraft become visible from the ground – would be at 5:39 AM.

General Meyers called again, asking how long the President had to make a final decision on the attack. “Tom, I need your drop-dead, no-shit decision time.”

In order to get the planes in and out of Iraqi airspace before dawn, Franks said, “Time on target must be no later than 0530 Iraq time, Dick, with takeoff from Al Udeid no later than 0330. . . . I need the President’s decision by 0315, so the jets can start engines and taxi.”

It was already 2:27 AM.

Time passed slowly in CENTCOM’s headquarters. At 2:59 AM Franks received word that the aircraft were armed, and the pilots were briefed and sitting on the runway in their planes.

Finally, at 3:12 AM, the phone rang. “The mission is a go, Tom,” General Meyers said. “Please execute.”

At 3:38 Qatari time, Lieutenant Colonel Dave Toomey and Major Mark Hoehn were airborne, flying north towards Baghdad in a race with the dawn. An hour later, 45 Tomahawk land attack missiles (TLAMs) were fired from surface vessels and submarines in the North Arabian Gulf. Each TLAM carried a 1,000-pound warhead, and once launched was impossible to recall.

The campaign to kill Saddam Hussein was under way.

As Toomey and Hoehn neared Baghdad, the GPS on one of Toomey’s bombs went dead. The EGBU-27’s had never been used in combat, and had only arrived in Qatar the day before the mission. So Toomey, a combat veteran and the squadron’s director of operations, literally pulled out the instruction manual, rebooted the computerized guidance system, and hoped for the best. As Toomey and Hoehn approached Dora Farms along oval flight paths from the east and west, the sun was almost above the horizon. Clouds shielded them from ground observation, but also hid the target complex. At the last moment, however, the pilots found a break in the clouds that gave them six seconds to visually identify the targets and drop the bombs at 5:36 AM Baghdad time.

Although Toomey and Hoehn could not know if they had gotten Saddam, reconnaissance photos showed all four bombs hit their target squarely. When the first intelligence reports from the scene started coming in, the CIA’s source reported that someone who looked to be Saddam was pulled from the rubble, looking blue and receiving oxygen. He had been put on a stretcher and loaded into the back of an ambulance, which did not move for half an hour before leaving the complex. Around 4:30 AM Tenet called the White House Situation Room and told the duty officer: “Tell the President we got the son of a bitch!”

Several hours later, however, Saddam appeared on Iraqi television. He was wearing an army uniform, a beret, and glasses. For seven minutes he read from a notepad, denouncing the American attack. It was not clear to U.S. analysts whether the address was live or taped, whether it was Saddam or a body double.

The remains of Saddam's alleged bunker at Dora Farms.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Today in Manhunting History: December 13, 2003 -- The Capture of Saddam Hussein

[This is a repost of last year's commemoration of the anniversary of Saddam's apprehension.  With Zero Dark Thirty about to hit theaters, there has been A LOT of commentary on the Abbottabad raid and the hunt for Bin Laden that I will try to find time to post on in the next week].

At 10:50 AM, December 13, Colonel James Hickey – commander of 1st BCT 4ID – received a call notifying him that Task Force 121 had Muhammad Ibrahim al-Musslit in custody, and requesting he prepare a covering force for a seizure mission that night. After four hours of grueling interrogation, Muhammad Ibrahim had finally revealed two likely locations for Saddam: a house and a farm in the town of Ad Dawr, a Ba’athist stronghold about 15 kilometers southeast of Tikrit. Hickey, certain that this time they would capture Saddam, assembled a 600-plus strong force mounted in 25 M2/M3 Bradley fighting vehicles and 30 HMMWVs to support the two dozen special operators of Task Force 121. The mission was codenamed “Operation Red Dawn,” and the two objectives were labeled “Wolverine One” and “Wolverine Two.” These names were fortuitous if somewhat coincidental. The operations staff for the “Raider” Brigade was in the habit of naming each day’s operations after the movies they had watched the night before. Had they viewed “When Harry Met Sally” or “The Wedding Planner” the previous night, it is possible the names for the operation would have evoked less martial images than those inspired by the 1980s movie about teenage guerrillas resisting a Soviet invasion of the United States.

Saddam Hussein before the March-December 2003 strategic manhunt
At 6PM Hickey’s force moved out of the brigade base at Camp Raider, a former palace built on a bluff overlooking the Tigris south of Tikrit. The night was cold and crisp as the covering force moved out to an assembly area at an old granary north of Ad Dawr, while engineers secured the west bank of the Tigris several hundred meters away. The force then moved quietly into position to block any escape and reinforcement routes and stand ready to reinforce Task Force 121 in case of heavy resistance. At 8PM, the special operators – identifiable by their black uniforms and NVGs – fast-roped onto the objectives from hovering helicopters.

The beam of red-lensed Maglite flashlights and laser sights on rifles sweeping across the ground contrasted with the clear night sky over Ad Dawr. Task Force 121 searched the two objectives, but they appeared to be empty of any targets. The team leaders conferred and talked with Muhammad Ibrahim, who had been flown from Baghdad to Tikrit, and then brought to the farm by the special operations team. Al-Muslit suggested another nearby location, northwest of Wolverine Two, where a ramshackle shack stood. There was an animal stench in the air, mingled with the scent of some nearby fruit trees. The operators burst into the structure, which indeed had been an orange-picker’s hut, and seized two men. One was Saddam’s cook, the other was the cook’s brother and owner of the farm, Qies Niemic Jasim, a former bodyguard. The operators found two AK-47s and $750,000, but Saddam was not there.

U.S. forces appeared to have struck another “dry hole” in the search for Saddam.

Picture from On Point II, as available at GlobalSecurity.org.
**************************************************************************

To the support and command elements following the operation’s progress via radio, the code words used suggested the operators were fruitlessly going back over the same ground, desperately searching for any signs leading to their quarry.

Then a call went over the command net: “We have Jackpot.”

The Joint Operations Center operations officer coordinating the mission asked for clarification, and an excited operator replied: “We’ve got Jackpot.”

A voice that had never been heard before on the Task Forces’ countless missions came on the radio. Admiral William McRaven, Task Force 121’s commander and a living legend within the Special Operations Forces community, asked: “Do you mean Big Jackpot?”

“Yes, we have Big Jackpot.”

Picture from On Point II, as available at GlobalSecurity.org

**************************************************************************

Minutes earlier, Muhammad Ibrahim had yelled at Qies Niemic Jasim in Arabic to show the operators where Saddam was hiding. The Fat Man apparently knew the exact spot, but wanted to be able to say that it was Qies who had betrayed Saddam. Finally, he realized it was going to be up to him, and moved to an area a few meters away from where the U.S. forces were concentrated. He began kicking the ground until he had uncovered a length of rope. The operators noticed Muhammad Ibrahim’s activities, and dug up the rope to reveal a trapdoor. The door was opened to reveal the entrance shaft to a “spider hole,” about six feet deep.

A sergeant shone a flashlight down the shaft. I think there’s something down there, an operator said, as another took the pin out of his grenade.

Then someone shouted, “Movement! We have something coming up.”

The operators held their fire when they saw the upraised hands of a dirty, bearded man with unkempt gray hair, appear. Although armed with a 9mm Markarov pistol, he put up no resistance as the soldiers grabbed him and yanked him out of the hole. As he was deposited on the ground, what looked like a vagrant said in halting English: “I am Saddam Hussein, the president of Iraq. I am willing to negotiate.”

“President Bush sends his regards,” the operators replied.

Task Force 121's interpreter, an exiled Iraqi-American named Samir,
posing with the captured tyrant just outside his spiderhole in Ad Dawr.
**************************************************************************

At 8:26PM, December 13, the hunt for Saddam Hussein came to a successful conclusion. Saddam was captured on the same farm where he had taken refuge in 1959 when, as a young hit man for the Ba’ath party, he had been part of a failed assassination attempt on Iraqi President Abdul Kareem Qassem, an episode that served as the founding myth to the dictator’s legend. The Arab scholar Fouad Ajami observed, great evil


never quite lives up to our expectations. The image of Saddam Hussein in captivity was true to Arendt’s theme. The haggard, disoriented man at the bottom of the ‘spider hole’ was the very same man who had inflicted unspeakable sorrow on his people, and on the peoples of two neighboring lands. The discovery of the smallness of the men behind the most terrible of deeds is always an affront: if Eichmann was only a clerk, Saddam was only a thug.
In the end, the tyrant who had terrified millions and buried hundreds of thousands of his own citizens in mass graves; who had urged his countrymen to violently resist U.S. forces and bragged about going down in a blaze of glory and defiance was captured without a shot being fired.

Friday, November 30, 2012

#Kony 2013

My latest piece on the hunt for Lords Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony has been published in Foreign Affairs.

It was actually accepted a month ago, but publication was delayed due to Israeli operation in Gaza.  And I had actually submitted it to coincide with the one-year anniversary of President Obama's announcement of "Operation Observant Compass" on October 12, 2011. 

So even though in the article I write that "media coverage of the search has become nearly as hard to find as the fugitive himself," I was still surprised there was no major media coverage of the anniversary in the interval before FA got around to publishing my essay.

Joseph Kony: Still at large 13 months on . . .

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The "Disposition Matrix"

Today the Washington Post starts a three-piece series on U.S counterterrorism policies and targeted killings with Greg Miller's piece on the "disposition matrix," the systematizing of tracking targeted individuals and the means of pursuing them, both kinetic and non-kinetic.

I'll withhold comment until I've seen the other two pieces in this series . . . well, except for two notes:
1) The premise of the piece, supported by the analysts and officials Miller interviewed, appears to validate my thesis about the growing importance of targeting individuals to U.S. national security; and
2) The "Disposition Matrix" has to rank up there with the greatest euphemisms of all time!

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Photos of the SEALs Abbottabad Mockup

An interesting piece at The Atlantic displaying satellite photos of the mockup of Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound that was used by the SEALs to train for the May 1, 2011 raid that killed al-Qa'ida's leader.

The Abbottabad mockup under construction

Bin Laden's Abbottabad compound in May 2011.

One of the more interesting details that "Mark Owen" reveals in No Easy Day is that although they had very good satellite imagery of the compound's exterior dimensions, he claims they had no idea of what the interior looked like despite earlier reporting that imaging had allowed the builders to recreate the compound down to the last detail.   


Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Today in Manhunting History: October 3, 1993 -- The Battle of Mogadishu

I already marked the anniversary of the operation that inspired "Black Hawk Down" here last year.

But CommandPosts.com -- an excellent site focusing on military history and special operations -- has republished two pieces I wrote for them on this subject in 2011: "Warlord's Revenge" and "The 'Mogadishu Effect' and Risk Acceptance."

[Note: For some reason blogger isn't letting me change the font color for links, so my apologies if they are hard to read.]