Okay, my apologies for the unscheduled/unannounced hiatus of three weeks.
Basically, I've been travelling for the book (and one wedding) each of the last three weekends, each of which became a four-day trip, and subsequently I had to complete five days of day-job work in three days each week, which did not leave time for blogging.
But not to fear! Over the weekend I'll try to post the roughly dozen stories that I missed while trying to stay above water at work.
Until then, C-Span's Book TV will be airing my reading at Denver's storied (no pun intended) Tattered Cover bookstore three times this weekend. Show times will be Saturday, October 1, at 4:15PM and 11PM (a free drink to whoever sends me a cell phone video from a bar with my talk on!), and Sunday the 2nd at 5AM.
Although I'm pretty sure I talked too fast during the talk, it was only because I tried to cram so much information and great war stories into a half-hour.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Anwar al-Awlaki Killed
It is rare that you wake up to news this good, but this morning American-born al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula cleric Anwar al-Awlaki was killed in an American drone strike in Yemen.
In February of this year, then-head of the Natioanl Coutnerterrorism Center, Michael Leiter, told the House Homeland Security Committee that AQAP -- which was responsible for the 2009 "Underwear Bomber" and the November 2010 plot to blow up planes over the Eastern seaboard using explosives-filled printer cartridges -- and its charismatic spiritual leader al-Awlaki are "probably the most significant risk to the U.S. homeland." In addition to those plots, al-Awlaki also inspired Nidal Hussein's shooting rampage at Fort Hood in 2009, killing 13 servicemen and women, and Faisal Shahzad, who attempted to detonate a car bomb in Times Square in May 2010. Also killed in the attack was Samir Khan, an American citizen who edited Inspire magazine, al-Qa'ida's English-language Internet journal that focused on recruiting American Muslims.
The United States had been trying to target al-Awlaki for over two years, with several near misses, more details of which are likely to emerge in the coming days. Although there are serious legal issues raised about using drone strikes against American citizens, this killing undoubtedly weakens AQAP. As I have said in Wanted Dead and Alive and subsequent articles, the killing of the broader network of senior operatives in al-Qa'ida and its affiliates will likely prove more decisive than the killing of Osama bin Laden. And today we took out a major player in that network.
[P.S. I'll have a longer note explaining my brief hiatus, as well as a ton of unpublished posts to add over the course of the weekend]
In February of this year, then-head of the Natioanl Coutnerterrorism Center, Michael Leiter, told the House Homeland Security Committee that AQAP -- which was responsible for the 2009 "Underwear Bomber" and the November 2010 plot to blow up planes over the Eastern seaboard using explosives-filled printer cartridges -- and its charismatic spiritual leader al-Awlaki are "probably the most significant risk to the U.S. homeland." In addition to those plots, al-Awlaki also inspired Nidal Hussein's shooting rampage at Fort Hood in 2009, killing 13 servicemen and women, and Faisal Shahzad, who attempted to detonate a car bomb in Times Square in May 2010. Also killed in the attack was Samir Khan, an American citizen who edited Inspire magazine, al-Qa'ida's English-language Internet journal that focused on recruiting American Muslims.
The United States had been trying to target al-Awlaki for over two years, with several near misses, more details of which are likely to emerge in the coming days. Although there are serious legal issues raised about using drone strikes against American citizens, this killing undoubtedly weakens AQAP. As I have said in Wanted Dead and Alive and subsequent articles, the killing of the broader network of senior operatives in al-Qa'ida and its affiliates will likely prove more decisive than the killing of Osama bin Laden. And today we took out a major player in that network.
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| Wormer, DEAD! Neidermeyer, DEAD! Awlaki . . . |
[P.S. I'll have a longer note explaining my brief hiatus, as well as a ton of unpublished posts to add over the course of the weekend]
Friday, September 9, 2011
The Washington Times' Review of "Wanted Dead or Alive"
The money quote:
In "Wanted: Dead or Alive," Mr. Runkle accomplishes two seemingly contradictory feats. His colorful, fast-paced accounts of each manhunt appeal to those who enjoy a good adventure story, but his keen strategic insight provides ample material for further reflection. His writing is readable without being breezy, meaty without being ponderous. Mr. Runkle's book deserves attention from both policymakers and the general public.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Things To Do In Denver . . .
. . . when you are not dead.
I'll be doing a reading/signing at the Tattered Cover in Highlands Ranch on Monday, September 12, at 7:30PM.
I've been told it is "90% likely" that C-Span will be there to record the talk for a future edition of Book Notes, so if you live in the Denver-Colorado Springs area, or know anybody else who does and is interested in military history/counterterrorism, please pass the word along so that we can get as many people in the store as possible!
I'll be doing a reading/signing at the Tattered Cover in Highlands Ranch on Monday, September 12, at 7:30PM.
I've been told it is "90% likely" that C-Span will be there to record the talk for a future edition of Book Notes, so if you live in the Denver-Colorado Springs area, or know anybody else who does and is interested in military history/counterterrorism, please pass the word along so that we can get as many people in the store as possible!
The Hunt for Qaddafi, Day 15
While a spokesman for the new Tripoli Military Council said Qaddafi is surrounded in the Sahara desert, a spokesmen for the Transitional National Council dismissed the report as a rumor and reiterated the unconfirmed accounts that the deposed dictator was in a convoy moving toward the Niger border.
Given that Anis Aharif, the TMC spokesmen, said that rebel forces were within 60 kilometers (37 miles) of Qaddfi's location, and are just "waiting for the right moment to move in," this claim has to be taken with a grain of salt the size of the Washington Monument. I don't even want to do the math to calculate how many troops it would take to effectively "surround" at 1369 square mile region, but I'd be willing to bet the rebels don't have that many troops total, much less actively pursuing the fugitive tyrant.
Speaking of whom, Qaddafi himself released another audio tape via Syrian television berating his enemies as rats and stray dogs and insisting he was still in Libya to fight on, "but he offered them no clues about where they could find him." Well, that's rather unsporting. Even the villain below was generous enough to provide his arch-enemy with clues to his location and strategy (although, granted, it tended not to work out so well for him . . . )
Given that Anis Aharif, the TMC spokesmen, said that rebel forces were within 60 kilometers (37 miles) of Qaddfi's location, and are just "waiting for the right moment to move in," this claim has to be taken with a grain of salt the size of the Washington Monument. I don't even want to do the math to calculate how many troops it would take to effectively "surround" at 1369 square mile region, but I'd be willing to bet the rebels don't have that many troops total, much less actively pursuing the fugitive tyrant.
Speaking of whom, Qaddafi himself released another audio tape via Syrian television berating his enemies as rats and stray dogs and insisting he was still in Libya to fight on, "but he offered them no clues about where they could find him." Well, that's rather unsporting. Even the villain below was generous enough to provide his arch-enemy with clues to his location and strategy (although, granted, it tended not to work out so well for him . . . )
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| Edward Nigma, a.k.a. "The Riddler," always forgets the first rule of evading manhunts: Providing clues to your location, no matter how elaborate, always backfire. |
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Manhunts and TMI
Jane Fonda is reported to have said: "‘My biggest regret is I never got to f*** Che Guevara.’
Yeah, just when I couldn't think any less of "Hanoi Jane" . . .
Yeah, just when I couldn't think any less of "Hanoi Jane" . . .
Qaddafi Watch, 9/7 Edition
Reuters quotes Hisham Buhagiar, who is coordinating the Transitional National Council's hunt for Qaddafi, as saying reports indcate he may have been in the region of the southern village of Ghwat, some 300km (186 miles) north of the border with Niger . . . three days ago.
I'm no expert on the Libyan highway system, but if he is travelling by car, as all reports indicate, then it doesn't seem unresasonable for him to make the 186 miles in three days. Even if he is travelling with children who need to stop for the bathroom every hour, or can't resist the Cinnabon just off the highway, it seems possible that he could have made it to the border.
Of course, Qaddafi's spokesmen confidently told Reuters "He is in Libya. He is safe, he is very healthy, in high morale." Of course, Moussa Ibrahim made this statement by telephone from an undisclosed location.
I'm no expert on the Libyan highway system, but if he is travelling by car, as all reports indicate, then it doesn't seem unresasonable for him to make the 186 miles in three days. Even if he is travelling with children who need to stop for the bathroom every hour, or can't resist the Cinnabon just off the highway, it seems possible that he could have made it to the border.
Of course, Qaddafi's spokesmen confidently told Reuters "He is in Libya. He is safe, he is very healthy, in high morale." Of course, Moussa Ibrahim made this statement by telephone from an undisclosed location.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The Rise of the JSOC
Cue ominous organ music . . .
In case you missed it over the long weekend, the Washington Post promoted a new book by its writers, Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, with an excerpt highlighting the expansion of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) in the decade since the 9/11 attacks. The article offers some interesting information on Stanley McChrystal's efforts to revitatalize the command, as well as the success of "Operation Arcadia," the offensive of raids that eventually resulted in the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and along with the Anbar Awakening and the Surge, resulted in pulling the Iraq war back from the abyss into a strategic victory for the United States.
However, the article buckles under the weight of its own attempts to be sensationalistic, something that plagued Priest and Arkin's earlier reporting. In the first four paragraphs, Priest and Arkin describe JSOC as a "mysterious organization," a "secretive group of men," and "America's secret army," adding: "When members of [SEAL Team 6] killed Osama bin laden in Pakistan in May, JSOC leaders celebrated not just the success of the mission but also how few people knew their command . . . even existed." Huh?!? Does anybody honestly think cigars were lit on May 1st over their anonymity? If anything, there was probably some trepidation that the raid's success would bring increased scrutiny and oversight of what even the authors admit is "arguably the most effective weapon in the U.S. counterterrorism arsenal."
Hopefully the book will prove less prone to hyperbole than the excerpt.
In case you missed it over the long weekend, the Washington Post promoted a new book by its writers, Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, with an excerpt highlighting the expansion of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) in the decade since the 9/11 attacks. The article offers some interesting information on Stanley McChrystal's efforts to revitatalize the command, as well as the success of "Operation Arcadia," the offensive of raids that eventually resulted in the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and along with the Anbar Awakening and the Surge, resulted in pulling the Iraq war back from the abyss into a strategic victory for the United States.
However, the article buckles under the weight of its own attempts to be sensationalistic, something that plagued Priest and Arkin's earlier reporting. In the first four paragraphs, Priest and Arkin describe JSOC as a "mysterious organization," a "secretive group of men," and "America's secret army," adding: "When members of [SEAL Team 6] killed Osama bin laden in Pakistan in May, JSOC leaders celebrated not just the success of the mission but also how few people knew their command . . . even existed." Huh?!? Does anybody honestly think cigars were lit on May 1st over their anonymity? If anything, there was probably some trepidation that the raid's success would bring increased scrutiny and oversight of what even the authors admit is "arguably the most effective weapon in the U.S. counterterrorism arsenal."
Hopefully the book will prove less prone to hyperbole than the excerpt.
Qaddafi Watch, 9/6 Edition
Apparently, the hunt for Qaddafi isn't going so well. According to the Washington Post, "A chaotic and apparently ill-coordinated effort by rebels to track down Moammar Gaddafi is being led by competing factions of military commanders and bounty hunters, as well as Libyan commandos commissioned by civilian leaders."
This scenario was easily foreseeable. In my recent Guardian piece, I noted that "bounties can even have a counterproductive effect on manhunts" as the hunters attempt to separate actual leads from wild rumors by people seeking to cash in. Subsequently, the Post reports "Scarcely a day goes by without someone claiming to know exactly where Gaddafi is hiding within that triangle. The problem is that they do not always agree with one another." Consequently, two different officials within the Transitional National Council are quoted as citing two different locations for the deposed dictator.
Interestingly, the article also supports two other themes from my book, noting that Qaddafi appears to be avoiding the use of satellite phones that NATO could trace, and that the territory in which he would be travelling through "is so vast that it would be difficult to spot from the air a convoy that could be sheltering Gaddafi."
This scenario was easily foreseeable. In my recent Guardian piece, I noted that "bounties can even have a counterproductive effect on manhunts" as the hunters attempt to separate actual leads from wild rumors by people seeking to cash in. Subsequently, the Post reports "Scarcely a day goes by without someone claiming to know exactly where Gaddafi is hiding within that triangle. The problem is that they do not always agree with one another." Consequently, two different officials within the Transitional National Council are quoted as citing two different locations for the deposed dictator.
Interestingly, the article also supports two other themes from my book, noting that Qaddafi appears to be avoiding the use of satellite phones that NATO could trace, and that the territory in which he would be travelling through "is so vast that it would be difficult to spot from the air a convoy that could be sheltering Gaddafi."
Today in Manhunting History -- September 6, 2003: The Arrest of Nasir al-Muslit
In the late summer and fall of 2003, the specter of the missing Saddam Hussein continued to have a damaging effect on Iraqi morale and reconstruction. From hiding, Saddam had issued at least five audio recordings calling upon Iraqis to attack Coalition forces. At the same time, the level of violence in Iraq rose dramatically. Nearly one soldier per day was being killed by hostile action, and in August alone car bombs had destroyed the Jordanian embassy and UN Headquarters in Baghdad, and killed more than 200 Shi’a worshippers at the sacred Imam Ali mosque in Najaf. General Sanchez deemed killing the fugitive Iraqi leader to be critical, as it would “relieve the people of Iraq of the fear of his return.”
Meanwhile, in one of Saddam’s ornate palaces along the Tigris in Tikrit, Task Force 20’s intelligence analysts were conducting social network analysis of top- and mid-level Ba’athist activists functional and tribal ties to the fugitive tyrant. (The 4th Infantry Division was independently conducting a similar analysis). When interrogation specialist, Staff Sergeant Eric Maddox joined the secretive unit in July, an interpreter showed him a list of all the former bodyguards who lived in the area, as well as their kin. On September 6, the Iraqi police arrested a former bodyguard named Nasir Yasim Omar al-Muslit, one of 40 al-Muslits on Maddox’s list. Under questioning, Nasir eventually provided Maddox with the blueprint to the operation of Saddam’s bodyguards. Whereas Maddox had been working off a list of 200 bodyguards of uncertain importance, Nasir gave him the key to the inner circle of 32 Hamaya, the individuals most trusted by Saddam.
Meanwhile, in one of Saddam’s ornate palaces along the Tigris in Tikrit, Task Force 20’s intelligence analysts were conducting social network analysis of top- and mid-level Ba’athist activists functional and tribal ties to the fugitive tyrant. (The 4th Infantry Division was independently conducting a similar analysis). When interrogation specialist, Staff Sergeant Eric Maddox joined the secretive unit in July, an interpreter showed him a list of all the former bodyguards who lived in the area, as well as their kin. On September 6, the Iraqi police arrested a former bodyguard named Nasir Yasim Omar al-Muslit, one of 40 al-Muslits on Maddox’s list. Under questioning, Nasir eventually provided Maddox with the blueprint to the operation of Saddam’s bodyguards. Whereas Maddox had been working off a list of 200 bodyguards of uncertain importance, Nasir gave him the key to the inner circle of 32 Hamaya, the individuals most trusted by Saddam.
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| SSG Eric Maddox |
Monday, September 5, 2011
Today in Manhunting History -- September 5, 1885: Geronimo Literally Runs Davis Out of the Army
Recognizing the futility of hunting the Apaches with cavalry and a pack train, in August 1885 Captain Emmet Crawford ordered Lieutenant Britton Davis and Chief of Scouts Al Sieber to pursue Geronimo with about 40 handpicked scouts. Geronimo led this detachment on a long chase, crossing the Sierras into Chihuahua before turning north to slip across the boundary into New Mexico, eluding the soldiers stationed there and disappearing into the interior of the Territory. Davis and the scouts had to pursue every lead while avoiding the natural barriers ripe for ambush in the mountainous terrain, and thus traveled “a hundred and forty or fifty miles to cover a hundred as the crow flies.” Davis’s detachment was given provisions for three days, which they made last for six. When their rations gave out, they kept on Geronimo’s trail, living “on the flesh of the ponies the hostiles had killed and such roots, berries, etc., as the country afforded and the scouts knew to be edible.” Lieutenant Davis’s men rode and walked 500 miles through the mountains and deserts before finally limping back across the border at Texas and reaching Fort Bliss on September 5.
Filthy, exhausted, and sick of the war, Davis resigned his commission and set off to manage the ranch of a family friend in Mexico.
Filthy, exhausted, and sick of the war, Davis resigned his commission and set off to manage the ranch of a family friend in Mexico.
Friday, September 2, 2011
CIA Shifting Focus to Capture/Kill Operations?
An interesting piece by Greg Miller and Julie Tate in today's Washington Post on the transformation within the CIA from strictly gathering intelligence and providing policymakers with analysis to increasingly devoting personnel and resources to capture or kill operations. Money quote from a "former senior U.S. intelligence official": You've taken an agency that was chugging along and turned it into one hell of a killing machine. (Another CIA veteran quoted the head of the Counter Terrorism Center as saying "We are killing these sons of bitches faster than they can grow them now.") Undoubtedly, the CTC, especially in coordination with Joint Special Operation Command forces has become incredibly efficient at targeting al-Qa'ida leaders and reducing the networks threat to the U.S. homeland.
In addition to describing the CTC's growth in personnel and resources, the article also echoes a concern I've heard from some friends in the intelligence community that these types of operations should fall under the purview of the JSOC so that the CIA can return to its core mission of gathering intelligence on broader strategic issues and offering neutral assessments/analysis to policymakers. To be honest, given how complex the underlying issues and authorities are (something Miller and Tate make clear), I'm hesitant to offer an opinion. But whether so much lethality should be invested in a covert organization is a legitimate line of inquiry, I think.
In addition to describing the CTC's growth in personnel and resources, the article also echoes a concern I've heard from some friends in the intelligence community that these types of operations should fall under the purview of the JSOC so that the CIA can return to its core mission of gathering intelligence on broader strategic issues and offering neutral assessments/analysis to policymakers. To be honest, given how complex the underlying issues and authorities are (something Miller and Tate make clear), I'm hesitant to offer an opinion. But whether so much lethality should be invested in a covert organization is a legitimate line of inquiry, I think.
Qaddafi Watch, 9/2 Edition
After being "cornered" in Bani Walid, the Transitional National Council announced yesterday that the wily military genius Colonel Qaddafi has escaped and is now apparently fleeing sought across the Sahara Desert, heading to Niger via the town of Sabha. Colonel Ahmed Omar Bani predicted that Qaddafi "wouldn't remain long in the sprawling garrison town" but would flee another 350 miles into the military-controlled neighbor to the South.
Call me crazy, I'm starting to think the TNC doesn't have as firm a grasp on Qaddafi's whereabouts as they are projecting, although Google's Driving Directions suggest Qaddafi could have made the trip in 12 hours, 38 minutes.
Call me crazy, I'm starting to think the TNC doesn't have as firm a grasp on Qaddafi's whereabouts as they are projecting, although Google's Driving Directions suggest Qaddafi could have made the trip in 12 hours, 38 minutes.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
In Today's Headlines
The AP reports "a new documentary reveals that a last-minute double-check of intelligence before" the Abbottabad raid by a "special 'red-team' of terrorism experts" cast doubts on whether Osama bin Laden was really in the compound, "primarily because they didn't believe he would risk having as many visitors as he did." I don't doubt there is some truth to this, as even the intelligence analysts who discovered the compound only estimated it was eighty-percent likely that bin Laden was there. But given that the Obama administration has lowered the probability estimates before to make the President's decision seem more courageous (which it indisputably was, thereby making their constant lowering of the probability so silly), until these red-teamers go on the record I'll remain slightly skeptical. Either way, "Targeting Bin Laden" airs next Tuesday on The History Channel.
Also, yesterday an official in the Transitional National Council said its fighters had cornered Colonel Moammar Qaddafi in a desert redoubt 150 miles from the capital in Bani Walid and were exhorting him to give up. Qaddafi's son and heir apparent, Seif al-Islam (not to be confused with Yusuf Islam, ne Cat Stevens) immediately denied the claim, saying "Our leadership is fine. We are drinking tea and coffee" somewhere in a Tripoli suburb.
Also, yesterday an official in the Transitional National Council said its fighters had cornered Colonel Moammar Qaddafi in a desert redoubt 150 miles from the capital in Bani Walid and were exhorting him to give up. Qaddafi's son and heir apparent, Seif al-Islam (not to be confused with Yusuf Islam, ne Cat Stevens) immediately denied the claim, saying "Our leadership is fine. We are drinking tea and coffee" somewhere in a Tripoli suburb.
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| Cat Stevens/Yusuf Islam: Not on the run from Libyan rebels (as far as we know). |
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