The allegation that Osama bin Laden was not apprehended in timely fashion because of insufficient troops deployed to Tora Bora is belied by the experience of a dozen strategic manhunts involving deployment of U.S. forces dating back to 1885-86. In fact, the need for surprise often means smaller forces are the ideal. Moreover, the human terrain is a bigger factor than the physical terrain. The views of the native population shape three variables that largely determine the success of strategic manhunts: human intelligence, help from indigenous forces, and whether the object of the hunt can find sanctuary by crossing a border. These factors were against U.S. forces in December 2001. The key would have been stronger links with Pashtun resources.I actually submitted this back in November 2011, and assumed it had been rejected until the editors contacted me this February saying it had been accepted but was still under security review. What appears in JFQ is the redacted version, as DOD decided they couldn't release some details that Langley had already cleared for publication in Gary Berntsen and George Tenet's memoirs. Then again, if the AP is correct, apparently members of the Obama administration have had a problem keeping details of the hunt for bin Laden secret, at least when it came to Hollywood directors/writers.
Showing posts with label Bin Laden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bin Laden. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
"Tora Bora Reconsidered" in Joint Forces Quarterly
My article, "Tora Bora Reconsidered: Lessons from 125 Years of Strategic Manhunts" in the forthcoming (July 2013) issue of Joint Forces Quarterly has been posted online. (The journal itself comes out next week). As the abstract notes:
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Bin Laden's Wives Charged . . .
. . . with violating Pakistan's immigration laws. No, really.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Pakistan Tears Down Abbottabad Compound
Well, damn!!! I was definitely planning on making a stop there on my next trip to Pakistan, but apparently Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound is no more.
If the Pakistanis were smart they could have given the compound the full Disney treatment, wherein tourists were transported to the house via helicopter, holes suddenly appeared in walls as if they were blown clear, the sound of gunfire would be piped in the courtyard over loudspeakers, and then people would rush up to the top floor to be greeted by an animatronic bin Laden who ducks back into his room.
You can't tell me that wouldn't have been a serious moneymaker!!!
If the Pakistanis were smart they could have given the compound the full Disney treatment, wherein tourists were transported to the house via helicopter, holes suddenly appeared in walls as if they were blown clear, the sound of gunfire would be piped in the courtyard over loudspeakers, and then people would rush up to the top floor to be greeted by an animatronic bin Laden who ducks back into his room.
You can't tell me that wouldn't have been a serious moneymaker!!!
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| Pakistani excavators demolish bin Laden's Abbottabad compound. |
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
What Did Pakistan Know About Bin Laden?
Fresh on the heels of former ISI chief Ziauddin Butt's charge that former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf knew Osama bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, David Ignatius reports that the architect who worked on the Abbottabad compound was regularly employed by the ISI. Ignatius goes on to propose an interesting set of questions regarding how bin Laden came to be living in Abbottabad in a large house one mile from Pakistan's premier military academy, to be investigated by a special civilian commission in Pakistan.
Separately, Jeffrey Goldberg comments in the Atlantic as to why the Pakistani military's commission examining this exact question has yet to determine an answer, suggesting the commission has devoted more time investigating Pakistanis accused of helping U.S. intelligence prepare for the SEALs' raid than finding out who was hiding bin Laden.
Separately, Jeffrey Goldberg comments in the Atlantic as to why the Pakistani military's commission examining this exact question has yet to determine an answer, suggesting the commission has devoted more time investigating Pakistanis accused of helping U.S. intelligence prepare for the SEALs' raid than finding out who was hiding bin Laden.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Did Musharraf Hide bin Laden?
Bruce Riedel writes in The Daily Beast that a former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate has accused former President of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, of knowing that Osama bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
General Ziauddin Khawaja was director-general of the ISI from 1997 and in October 1999 was promoted to Chief of Staff of the Pakistani army, in which capacity he would have replaced General Musharraf. Except . . . Musharraf apparently didn't take to well to being fired from the position, and launched the coup that overthrew Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and installed Musharraf as Pakistan's president until August 2007. Not one to let bygones be bygones, one of his first orders of business was to throw Ziauddin in jail, where he spent the next two years in solitary confinement. Amongst his initiatives as head of the ISI, Ziauddin formed a Pakistani commando team that the Clinton administration would fund in order to pursue bin Laden in Taliban-run Afghanistan, but the coup also meant the end of the unit.
Ziauddin claims that another Pakistani intelligence officer, Brigadier General Ijaz Shah -- who is linked to other Pakistani-supported terrorists -- was responsible for setting up bin Laden in Abbottabad, ensuring his safety and keeping him hidden from the outside, and that Musharraf knew all about it and said nothing.
Ziauddin clearly has an ax to grind against Musharraf, but given what we know about Ijaz Shah they could be plausible. Not only do we need to get to the bottom of these charges in order to target the remainder of al-Qa'ida's senior leadership, but also to determine our strategy towards Pakistan in light of Musharraf's stated desire to make a comeback in Pakistani politics.
General Ziauddin Khawaja was director-general of the ISI from 1997 and in October 1999 was promoted to Chief of Staff of the Pakistani army, in which capacity he would have replaced General Musharraf. Except . . . Musharraf apparently didn't take to well to being fired from the position, and launched the coup that overthrew Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and installed Musharraf as Pakistan's president until August 2007. Not one to let bygones be bygones, one of his first orders of business was to throw Ziauddin in jail, where he spent the next two years in solitary confinement. Amongst his initiatives as head of the ISI, Ziauddin formed a Pakistani commando team that the Clinton administration would fund in order to pursue bin Laden in Taliban-run Afghanistan, but the coup also meant the end of the unit.
Ziauddin claims that another Pakistani intelligence officer, Brigadier General Ijaz Shah -- who is linked to other Pakistani-supported terrorists -- was responsible for setting up bin Laden in Abbottabad, ensuring his safety and keeping him hidden from the outside, and that Musharraf knew all about it and said nothing.
Ziauddin clearly has an ax to grind against Musharraf, but given what we know about Ijaz Shah they could be plausible. Not only do we need to get to the bottom of these charges in order to target the remainder of al-Qa'ida's senior leadership, but also to determine our strategy towards Pakistan in light of Musharraf's stated desire to make a comeback in Pakistani politics.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Had Bin Laden Given Up?
The Daily Mail reports that Osama bin Laden told his children to live peacefully in the West where they would get a good education. This is according to his brother-in-law Zakaria al-Sadah, whose sister was bin Laden's fifth wife, who also said bin Laden did not want his children and granchildren to follow the jihadist path.
Yeah, okay. I'm not saying this isn't true, but that it just seems really out of character for bin Laden, especially given that his sons have been considered possible heirs to his mantle of leadership within al-Qa'ida.
Yeah, okay. I'm not saying this isn't true, but that it just seems really out of character for bin Laden, especially given that his sons have been considered possible heirs to his mantle of leadership within al-Qa'ida.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Today in Manhunting History -- February 11, 1999: "Osama will likely boogie to Baghdad"
During the Clinton administration's deliberations on whether or not to attack the hunting camp in Western Afghanistan where bin Laden was believed to be staying, Sandy Berger proposed a U-2 flight to recon the target. Richard Clarke, then the NSC's senior advisor for counterterrorism, opposed the plan. Clarke noted such a mission would require Pakistani approval, and “Pak’s intel is in bed with” bin Laden and would warn him that the United States was getting ready for a bombing attack. “Armed with that knowledge,” Clarke wrote, Osama “will likely boogie to Baghdad.”
Huh??? I thought it was only the crazy neocons of the Bush administration who suspected there might be some link between Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein!?! [Said facetiously, in case you could not tell . . . ]
Huh??? I thought it was only the crazy neocons of the Bush administration who suspected there might be some link between Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein!?! [Said facetiously, in case you could not tell . . . ]
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Today in Manhunting History -- February 8, 1999: The Non-Attack on bin Laden's Hunting Camp
In February 1999, the CIA’s Afghan tribal agents reported that Osama bin Laden had travelled to an elaborate cluster of hunting camps – replete with elegant tents, a small fleet of Land Cruisers, and a plane parked nearby – in Western Afghanistan. The CIA’s confidence in the tribals’ reporting had increased and the collective feeling at the NSC (as recalled by Daniel Benjamin and Scott Simon) was “Bingo! It had to be bin Laden.” Because of the remote location, a missile strike would have less risk of collateral damage, and on February 8 the military began to prepare for a possible strike.
Satellite reconnaissance confirmed the location and description of the largest camp, but it also revealed the plane was an official aircraft of the United Arab Emirates, and the falconers included several UAE princes. Although the satellite photos provided enough detail that analysts could make out the falcons roosting on their poles, the location of bin Laden’s quarters could not be precisely determined. All the tribals could report was that bin Laden regularly visited the Emiratis from an adjacent camp, and that they expected him to be at the hunting camp for such a visit at least until midmorning on February 11.
Without a picture of bin Laden standing outside his tent or the tracking team able to get close enough to the camp, neither the Islamabad station nor the Agency’s Counter Terrorism Center could provide a 100 percent guarantee of bin Laden’s location. Policymakers were paralyzed by the fear that a strike on the main camp would kill an Emirati prince or senior official, and by February 12 bin Laden had moved on.
Satellite reconnaissance confirmed the location and description of the largest camp, but it also revealed the plane was an official aircraft of the United Arab Emirates, and the falconers included several UAE princes. Although the satellite photos provided enough detail that analysts could make out the falcons roosting on their poles, the location of bin Laden’s quarters could not be precisely determined. All the tribals could report was that bin Laden regularly visited the Emiratis from an adjacent camp, and that they expected him to be at the hunting camp for such a visit at least until midmorning on February 11.
Without a picture of bin Laden standing outside his tent or the tracking team able to get close enough to the camp, neither the Islamabad station nor the Agency’s Counter Terrorism Center could provide a 100 percent guarantee of bin Laden’s location. Policymakers were paralyzed by the fear that a strike on the main camp would kill an Emirati prince or senior official, and by February 12 bin Laden had moved on.
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| The discovery of an official UAE aircraft led the proposed strike on Bin Laden's hunting camp to be aborted. |
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Bin Laden Post-Mortem Photos Coming Soon?
The National Journal reports that in a brief responding to a lawsuit from Judicial Watch seeking "all photographs and/or video recordings" taking during SEAL Team Six's raid on Abbottabad, the Department of Justice concedes that some of the pictures are legally required to be disclosed and could be disclosed without "core" harm to national security. (Or at least that's what the legal expert National Journal consulted says. To be honest, it's all Greek to me).
But, honestly, would the release of images of Osama bin Laden with a bullet hole over his eye and caked in blood do anything besides satisfy some people's prurient curiousity? Is this enough to override the potential harm it could do by offending Muslims worldwide?
(And note, the question of giving offense obviously shouldn't be the driving determination of our behavior, i.e. defending Salman Rushdie's right to write The Satanic Verses or allowing newspapers to publish cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad without fear of mindless retaliatory violence).
But given that even al-Qa'ida concedes bin Laden was killed in the raid, I have a hard time seeing any strategic upside to the publication of these pictures as opposed to potential negative second/third-order effects.
Please feel free to comment if you have any thoughts on this.
But, honestly, would the release of images of Osama bin Laden with a bullet hole over his eye and caked in blood do anything besides satisfy some people's prurient curiousity? Is this enough to override the potential harm it could do by offending Muslims worldwide?
(And note, the question of giving offense obviously shouldn't be the driving determination of our behavior, i.e. defending Salman Rushdie's right to write The Satanic Verses or allowing newspapers to publish cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad without fear of mindless retaliatory violence).
But given that even al-Qa'ida concedes bin Laden was killed in the raid, I have a hard time seeing any strategic upside to the publication of these pictures as opposed to potential negative second/third-order effects.
Please feel free to comment if you have any thoughts on this.
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| Apparently, The Onion's photo from May wasn't genuine. |
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
More Abbottabad Controversies
Perhaps in part due to President Obama's decision to open and close last week's State of the Union address with an acknowledgement of the Navy SEALs who executed the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, the Abbottabad raid (or more precisely, the fallout from the raid) is suddenly generating a new set of controversies.
In the Wall Street Journal today, recently retired SEAL Leif Babin argues that President Obama is wrongfully exploiting the Navy SEALs for political gain, and worse, endangering Special Operations Forces by revealing operational details of the raid.
Meanwhile, Defense Department spokesmen are "clarifying" Secretary Panetta's remarks to 60 Minutes regarding Pakistani awareness of bin Laden's residence in Abbottabad.
And over at Blackfive, "Uncle Jimbo" claims Kill Bin Laden novelist John Weisman told him the White House delayed executing the Abbottabad raid while polling about the operation was conducted. This would be very bad, of course, although it should be noted this is unattributed hearsay.
I would expect that if the Obama campaign really does intend to make bin Laden's killing central to their case for re-election, we'll inevitably see more of these controversies over the next nine months. Ugh.
In the Wall Street Journal today, recently retired SEAL Leif Babin argues that President Obama is wrongfully exploiting the Navy SEALs for political gain, and worse, endangering Special Operations Forces by revealing operational details of the raid.
Meanwhile, Defense Department spokesmen are "clarifying" Secretary Panetta's remarks to 60 Minutes regarding Pakistani awareness of bin Laden's residence in Abbottabad.
And over at Blackfive, "Uncle Jimbo" claims Kill Bin Laden novelist John Weisman told him the White House delayed executing the Abbottabad raid while polling about the operation was conducted. This would be very bad, of course, although it should be noted this is unattributed hearsay.
I would expect that if the Obama campaign really does intend to make bin Laden's killing central to their case for re-election, we'll inevitably see more of these controversies over the next nine months. Ugh.
VP Biden Opposed Abbottabad Raid
According to ABC News, Vice President Joe Biden told House Democrats at their annual retreat last weekend that he opposed SEAL Team Six's raid on Abbottabad, Pakistan that killed Osama bin Laden.
Hmmm, it's a shocker that the guy who said . . .
Hmmm, it's a shocker that the guy who said . . .
“If he surges another 20, 30, or whatever number he’s going to, into Baghdad, it’ll be a tragic mistake, in my view." (Meet the Press, January 7, 2007). . . turns out not to be such a military genius after all. [Must . . . resist . . . urge . . . to ask whether he gave his recommendation in an Indian accent.]
"I mean, the truth of the matter is that, that the — America’s — this administration’s policy and the surge are a failure." (Meet the Press, September 9, 2007)
Monday, January 30, 2012
Panetta on 60 Minutes
The full transcript of Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's 60 Minutes interview is available here.
The video is available (theoretically) here.
To be honest, there isn't much here on the hunt for Osama bin Laden that wasn't already leaked ahead of the interview. But the interviewer, Scott Pelley, does make one misleading statement in his narration that deserves comment. At 7:05 of the video, Pelley says:
While Panetta and the Obama administration deserve credit for the successful operation, the intelligence breakthrough that led to the targeting of the Abbottabad compound was the productive of a cumulative effort that began well before President Obama entered the White House.
The video is available (theoretically) here.
To be honest, there isn't much here on the hunt for Osama bin Laden that wasn't already leaked ahead of the interview. But the interviewer, Scott Pelley, does make one misleading statement in his narration that deserves comment. At 7:05 of the video, Pelley says:
The first challenge ordered by the president was to rethink the search for Osama bin Laden. There hadn't been a good lead since the U.S. lost him in 2001 in the mountains of Tora Bora, Afghanistan. Within a year and a half of Panetta taking over as director of Central Intelligence, the U.S. tracked al Qaeda couriers to a house in a town called Abbottabad, deep inside Pakistan.This suggests that the Obama administration's "rethink" is what led to bin Laden. But in reality, the key intelligence was gained in interrogations dating back to the early Bush administration, including the questioning of Hassan Gul. Gul had been captured by Kurdish forces near the Iranian border in January 2004 carrying a compact disc with a letter from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. These interrogations revealed the existence of a man known by the nom de guerre "Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti," one of the few couriers trusted by bin Laden. Painstaking detective work over the next three years -- not some magical "rethink" -- produced al-Kuwaiti's family name in 2007, which subsequently enabled an intercepted call with another al-Qa'ida operative in 2009 to finally lead U.S. intelligence to the region of Pakistan where al-Kuwaiti operated.
While Panetta and the Obama administration deserve credit for the successful operation, the intelligence breakthrough that led to the targeting of the Abbottabad compound was the productive of a cumulative effort that began well before President Obama entered the White House.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Panetta Acknowledges Role of Pakistani Doctor in Bin Laden Hunt
More from tomorrow's 60 Minutes interview with Secretary Panetta, who according to the New York Times became the first Obama Administration official to publicly confirm that a Pakistani doctor had been working for the CIA collecting intel in Abbottabad.
As many you may recall, Dr. Shikal Afridi ran a phony hepatitis B vaccination program as a ruse to obtain DNA from the occupants of the Abbottabad compound to confirm whether they were Osama bin Laden's family. After the raid, Afridi was subsequently arrested by Pakistani authorities and charged with treason.
Although Dr. Afridi did not get any DNA samples from bin Laden's family, Panetta told 60 Minutes that he was "very helpful" and added that "For them to take this kind of action against somebody who was helping to go after terrorism, I just think is a real mistake on their part." Although Panetta's acknowledgement is hopefully a sign that the Administration will not abandon Afridi, it also confirms every Pakistani conspiracy theory about the reach of the CIA within Pakistani society.
As many you may recall, Dr. Shikal Afridi ran a phony hepatitis B vaccination program as a ruse to obtain DNA from the occupants of the Abbottabad compound to confirm whether they were Osama bin Laden's family. After the raid, Afridi was subsequently arrested by Pakistani authorities and charged with treason.
Although Dr. Afridi did not get any DNA samples from bin Laden's family, Panetta told 60 Minutes that he was "very helpful" and added that "For them to take this kind of action against somebody who was helping to go after terrorism, I just think is a real mistake on their part." Although Panetta's acknowledgement is hopefully a sign that the Administration will not abandon Afridi, it also confirms every Pakistani conspiracy theory about the reach of the CIA within Pakistani society.
Panetta: Pakistani Officials Had to Know About Bin Laden
In an interview to be aired tomorrow night, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta tells 60 Minutes he believes Pakistani officials had to know that Osama bin Laden was hiding at the Abbottabad compound in which he was discovered and killed by SEAL Team Six last May.
"I personally have always felt that somebody must have had some sense of what was happening at this compound," says Panetta, who was the CIA director during the planning and execution of the raid. "[T]his compound had 18-foot walls. It was the largest compound in the area. So you would have thought that somebody would have asked the question, ‘What the hell's going on there?’”
Panetta statement appears to contradict the previous Obama Administration position that that nobody in the Pakistani government knew of bin Laden's location prior to the raid, espoused publicly by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Is Panetta's statement a by-product of deteriorating U.S.-Pakistani relations or of new intelligence discovered in the intervening eight months?
In fact, there may be less than meets the eye here, as Panetta admits: "I don't have any hard evidence, so I can't say it for a fact. There's nothing that proves the case. But, as I said, my personal view is that somebody somewhere probably had that knowledge."
"I personally have always felt that somebody must have had some sense of what was happening at this compound," says Panetta, who was the CIA director during the planning and execution of the raid. "[T]his compound had 18-foot walls. It was the largest compound in the area. So you would have thought that somebody would have asked the question, ‘What the hell's going on there?’”
Panetta statement appears to contradict the previous Obama Administration position that that nobody in the Pakistani government knew of bin Laden's location prior to the raid, espoused publicly by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Is Panetta's statement a by-product of deteriorating U.S.-Pakistani relations or of new intelligence discovered in the intervening eight months?
In fact, there may be less than meets the eye here, as Panetta admits: "I don't have any hard evidence, so I can't say it for a fact. There's nothing that proves the case. But, as I said, my personal view is that somebody somewhere probably had that knowledge."
Monday, December 19, 2011
AP's Top News Stories of 2011
The Associated Press released its "Top News Stories of 2011" this weekend, two of which were featured prominently here on Wanted Dead or Alive:
#1 - "OSAMA BIN LADEN'S DEATH: He'd been the world's most-wanted terrorist for nearly a decade, ever since a team of his al-Qaida followers carried out the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. In May, the long and often-frustrating manhunt ended with a nighttime assault by a helicopter-borne special operations squad on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Bin Laden was shot dead by one of the raiders, and within hours his body was buried at sea."
#7 - "GADHAFI TOPPLED IN LIBYA: After nearly 42 years of mercurial and often brutal rule, Moammar Gadhafi was toppled by his own people. Anti-government protests escalated into an eight-month rebellion, backed by NATO bombing, that shattered his regime, and Gadhafi finally was tracked down and killed in the fishing village where he was born."
Alas, the third story I focused on in 2011 -- Kim Kardashian's wedding and divorce -- failed to make the cut.
#1 - "OSAMA BIN LADEN'S DEATH: He'd been the world's most-wanted terrorist for nearly a decade, ever since a team of his al-Qaida followers carried out the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. In May, the long and often-frustrating manhunt ended with a nighttime assault by a helicopter-borne special operations squad on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Bin Laden was shot dead by one of the raiders, and within hours his body was buried at sea."
#7 - "GADHAFI TOPPLED IN LIBYA: After nearly 42 years of mercurial and often brutal rule, Moammar Gadhafi was toppled by his own people. Anti-government protests escalated into an eight-month rebellion, backed by NATO bombing, that shattered his regime, and Gadhafi finally was tracked down and killed in the fishing village where he was born."
Alas, the third story I focused on in 2011 -- Kim Kardashian's wedding and divorce -- failed to make the cut.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
While I Was Away
Sorry for the hiatus, but the day job required an 80-hour work week and two straight weekends at the office. Fortunately, it is no great loss to miss a Redskins game these days, although I did get to see the Army-Navy game. (Btw, who the hell runs an option play on 4th and 7 with five minutes left in the game? Coach Ellerson, your quarterback had already completed two passes -- practically an Aaron Rodgers-like performance for an Army QB -- why not let him throw it?!? Damn it, I'm sick and tired of losing to those squids!)
Anyways, while I was otherwise occupied:
- Eli Lake, one of the best national security reporters working today, examined hidden U.S.-Pakistani counter-terrorism cooperation in the Daily Beast. As I noted in Wanted Dead or Alive, one of the keys to targeting individuals is cooperation with indigenous forces. Although Lake only discusses the capture of al-Qa'ida's external operations chief, Younis al-Mauritani, U.S. intelligence agencies similarly used local Pakistani agents to surveil Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti and the compound in Abbottabad where Osama bin Laden was killed.
- Speaking of Abbottabad, ABC reported that Pakistan is preparing to release Osama bin Laden's wives from custody. The article notes that "In the months after the raid, both Pakistani and U.S. officials described the wives as uncooperative and it's not clear that they knew much about bin Laden's work." This isn't surprising, as bin Laden somehow always struck me as somebody who would not have a problem telling his wives not to inquire about his business, i.e. Michael Corleone or Tony Soprano.
- Speaking of the Mafia, Michele Zagaria, head of Naples' Casalesi clan, was captured Wednesday, September 7, after Italian police drilled into his concrete bunker in his hometown of Casapesenna. Although this isn't technically a "strategic" manhunt, in that Zagaria never left Italy, he had been on the run for 16 years. (Although what is the point of being a mob boss if you are forced to live in an underground bunker? Unless he had a really great satellite dish and, um, plenty of conjugal visitors, how different would that be from prison?)
- Finally, another person not going to breathe fresh air anytime soon is Manuel Noriega, who on Sunday was extradited from France to Panama. Sunday marks the first time the deposed strongman has set foot in Panama since surrendering to U.S. forces almost 21 years ago, an event I'll be writing on in some detail over the upcoming weeks. The 77-year old Noriega faces multiple murder charges of various political opponents in Panama from his years as dictator there. Otherwise, Miami to Paris to Panama would sound a like a pretty nice travel itinerary.
Anyways, while I was otherwise occupied:
- Eli Lake, one of the best national security reporters working today, examined hidden U.S.-Pakistani counter-terrorism cooperation in the Daily Beast. As I noted in Wanted Dead or Alive, one of the keys to targeting individuals is cooperation with indigenous forces. Although Lake only discusses the capture of al-Qa'ida's external operations chief, Younis al-Mauritani, U.S. intelligence agencies similarly used local Pakistani agents to surveil Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti and the compound in Abbottabad where Osama bin Laden was killed.
- Speaking of Abbottabad, ABC reported that Pakistan is preparing to release Osama bin Laden's wives from custody. The article notes that "In the months after the raid, both Pakistani and U.S. officials described the wives as uncooperative and it's not clear that they knew much about bin Laden's work." This isn't surprising, as bin Laden somehow always struck me as somebody who would not have a problem telling his wives not to inquire about his business, i.e. Michael Corleone or Tony Soprano.
- Speaking of the Mafia, Michele Zagaria, head of Naples' Casalesi clan, was captured Wednesday, September 7, after Italian police drilled into his concrete bunker in his hometown of Casapesenna. Although this isn't technically a "strategic" manhunt, in that Zagaria never left Italy, he had been on the run for 16 years. (Although what is the point of being a mob boss if you are forced to live in an underground bunker? Unless he had a really great satellite dish and, um, plenty of conjugal visitors, how different would that be from prison?)
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| Mafia boss Michele Zagoria, dressed frighteningly similar to my high school calculus teacher. Hmmm. . . . |
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| Manuel Noriega, on the first of his 7,600 days (and counting) as a prisoner. |
Friday, November 18, 2011
Today in Manhunting History -- November 18, 2001: Jawbreaker Deploys to Tora Bora
On October 7, 2001, the U.S. air campaign against al Qaeda and the Taliban began as bombers, strike aircraft, and cruise missiles pounded targets. Measurable progress was difficult to discern at first, but by November 10 the first major objective of the campaign – the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif – was taken, and within the next few days the Taliban’s hold on the country began to rapidly disintegrate in the face of U.S. precision guided munitions and the Northern Alliance’s ground assault.
Despite the quality and volume of intelligence the Northern Alliance procured for Team Jawbreaker, there was little reliable information on Osama bin Laden. On November 10, London’s Sunday Times reported that the Saudi was seen entering Jalalabad in a convoy of white Toyota trucks surrounded by 60 commandos in green battle fatigues, armed with shiny new Kalishnikovs. He addressed a gathering of about 1,000 Afghan and Pakistani tribal leaders at the Islamic Studies Institute, and the next day was spotted by Jalalabad residents standing outside a mosque, holding hands with the local Taliban governor. He barked orders to his bodyguards and left in a convoy of four-wheel-drive vehicles.
Gary Berntsen, the new leader of Jawbreaker, received reports of bin Laden’s exodus shortly after Northern Alliance forces entered Kabul on November 12. Berntsen, a bear-sized man with a Long Island accent, learned two days later of a convoy of 200 Toyotas and Land Cruisers passing through the village of Agam two hours south of Kabul. A quick plotting of all the accounts received from Afghan agents indicated a steady movement south and east towards the Pakistan border.
Bin Laden’s flight towards Afghanistan’s southeastern mountains made sense. His destination was Tora Bora (Pashto for “black dust”), a series of cave-filled valleys in the White Mountains whose ridgelines rose from wooded foothills to jagged, snow-covered peaks separated by deep ravines. The Tora Bora complex covered an area roughly six miles wide and six miles long, and during the 1980s had been the object of multiple Soviet offensives. The Red Army had attacked with thousands of infantrymen supported by helicopter gunships and MiGs, yet the fortifications were so solid that the Soviets were held off by a force of 130 Afghans.
Moreover, bin Laden was intimately familiar with the terrain at Tora Bora. In 1987 he used bulldozers from his family’s construction company to build a road through the mountains. Later, at the village of Jaji, bin Laden fought his first battle against the Soviets. During the years before September 11, bin Laden kept a house in a settlement near Tora Bora called Milawa. Tora Bora offered easy access to Parachinar, a region of Pakistan that juts into Afghanistan like a parrot’s beak on the southern slope of Tora Bora. Bin Laden’s son Omar recalled that his father would routinely hike from Tora Bora into Pakistan on excursions that could take from 7-14 hours. “My brothers and I all loathed those grueling treks,” Omar said, but they “seemed the most pleasant outings to our father.”
Locals reported scores of vehicles loaded with al Qaeda fighters and supplies moving towards Tora Bora. Estimates from Afghans who had traveled inside to meet with the Arabs put the number of fighters between 1,600-2,000. Villagers in the area said that bin Laden’s core bodyguard was supported by a 400-man force acting as pickets on the flanks as the terrorist leader moved back and forth between the Milewa Valley in the west and Tora Bora in the east. Another force of 400 Chechens – highly regarded for their alpine fighting skills – guarded the perimeter of the Tora Bora complex.
Thus, Tora Bora afforded bin Laden option of fighting or fleeing.
In addition to the formidable terrain, Berntsen faced another problem. The Northern Alliance, which had served as the proxy ground force thus far in the campaign, had neither the capacity nor the desire to push as far south as Jalalabad. Consequently, Berntsen was forced to turn to the local warlords of the “Eastern Alliance” who had not been fully vetted. Hazaret Ali was a Pashai tribal leader who despite being “physically small, quiet, and unassuming,” had distinguished himself as a field commander in the war against the Soviets. Although he seemed reliable, he led “a gang of skinny mountain boys in rags,” and because his translator only spoke limited English, communicating the complexities of a rapidly evolving battlefield would be difficult. Conversely, Haji Zaman was well-educated and spoke English. But he had only just returned from exile in France and commanded men who “could well have passed themselves off as a band of 18th-century cutthroats.”
Berntsen’s sources continued to tell him bin Laden was in the area, so several days after arriving in Jalalabad Jawbreaker moved into a schoolhouse in the foothills near Tora Bora and established a command center. Because satellite imagery and photos from high-flying reconnaissance planes showed deep snow was stacking up in Tora Bora’s valleys and passes, it was concluded that with these passageways closed bin Laden would not be able to leave the mountains anytime soon. Radio intercepts further suggested that al Qaeda wanted a fight in the mountains where their prepared positions appeared to give them a tactical advantage. Finally, as the Delta Force commander noted, based on his constant praise over the years for the virtues of martyrdom, “We had no reason to doubt that bin Laden wouldn’t fight to the death.”
Consequently, the plan for Tora Bora closely resembled the operations that had broken the Taliban lines north of Kabul. CIA paramilitary operatives and U.S. Special Forces would infiltrate Tora Bora to identify targets for bombing, which would clear the way for the Afghan militias. Ali and Zaman, already fierce rivals, were given separate parallel axes of advance into the mountains: Ali’s forces would take the center of the range, Zaman’s men the western half of the base with both attacking south. U.S. forces would coordinate their movements and provide massive air support, while Pakistani forces would seal the border to the south and east.
While Special Forces units worked with the Afghans to prepare for the assault on Tora Bora, on November 18 Berntsen sent an eight-man team to pursue bin Laden. The battle for Tora Bora, and what appeared to the climax of the hunt for Osama bin Laden, was about to begin.
Despite the quality and volume of intelligence the Northern Alliance procured for Team Jawbreaker, there was little reliable information on Osama bin Laden. On November 10, London’s Sunday Times reported that the Saudi was seen entering Jalalabad in a convoy of white Toyota trucks surrounded by 60 commandos in green battle fatigues, armed with shiny new Kalishnikovs. He addressed a gathering of about 1,000 Afghan and Pakistani tribal leaders at the Islamic Studies Institute, and the next day was spotted by Jalalabad residents standing outside a mosque, holding hands with the local Taliban governor. He barked orders to his bodyguards and left in a convoy of four-wheel-drive vehicles.
Gary Berntsen, the new leader of Jawbreaker, received reports of bin Laden’s exodus shortly after Northern Alliance forces entered Kabul on November 12. Berntsen, a bear-sized man with a Long Island accent, learned two days later of a convoy of 200 Toyotas and Land Cruisers passing through the village of Agam two hours south of Kabul. A quick plotting of all the accounts received from Afghan agents indicated a steady movement south and east towards the Pakistan border.
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| Gary Berntsen, leader of the CIA's "Jawbreaker" team in November 2001. |
Moreover, bin Laden was intimately familiar with the terrain at Tora Bora. In 1987 he used bulldozers from his family’s construction company to build a road through the mountains. Later, at the village of Jaji, bin Laden fought his first battle against the Soviets. During the years before September 11, bin Laden kept a house in a settlement near Tora Bora called Milawa. Tora Bora offered easy access to Parachinar, a region of Pakistan that juts into Afghanistan like a parrot’s beak on the southern slope of Tora Bora. Bin Laden’s son Omar recalled that his father would routinely hike from Tora Bora into Pakistan on excursions that could take from 7-14 hours. “My brothers and I all loathed those grueling treks,” Omar said, but they “seemed the most pleasant outings to our father.”
Locals reported scores of vehicles loaded with al Qaeda fighters and supplies moving towards Tora Bora. Estimates from Afghans who had traveled inside to meet with the Arabs put the number of fighters between 1,600-2,000. Villagers in the area said that bin Laden’s core bodyguard was supported by a 400-man force acting as pickets on the flanks as the terrorist leader moved back and forth between the Milewa Valley in the west and Tora Bora in the east. Another force of 400 Chechens – highly regarded for their alpine fighting skills – guarded the perimeter of the Tora Bora complex.
Thus, Tora Bora afforded bin Laden option of fighting or fleeing.
In addition to the formidable terrain, Berntsen faced another problem. The Northern Alliance, which had served as the proxy ground force thus far in the campaign, had neither the capacity nor the desire to push as far south as Jalalabad. Consequently, Berntsen was forced to turn to the local warlords of the “Eastern Alliance” who had not been fully vetted. Hazaret Ali was a Pashai tribal leader who despite being “physically small, quiet, and unassuming,” had distinguished himself as a field commander in the war against the Soviets. Although he seemed reliable, he led “a gang of skinny mountain boys in rags,” and because his translator only spoke limited English, communicating the complexities of a rapidly evolving battlefield would be difficult. Conversely, Haji Zaman was well-educated and spoke English. But he had only just returned from exile in France and commanded men who “could well have passed themselves off as a band of 18th-century cutthroats.”
![]() |
| Hazeret Ali and Haji Zaman, the local warlords U.S. forces were dependent upon as the hunt for bin Laden moved to Tora Bora. |
Consequently, the plan for Tora Bora closely resembled the operations that had broken the Taliban lines north of Kabul. CIA paramilitary operatives and U.S. Special Forces would infiltrate Tora Bora to identify targets for bombing, which would clear the way for the Afghan militias. Ali and Zaman, already fierce rivals, were given separate parallel axes of advance into the mountains: Ali’s forces would take the center of the range, Zaman’s men the western half of the base with both attacking south. U.S. forces would coordinate their movements and provide massive air support, while Pakistani forces would seal the border to the south and east.
While Special Forces units worked with the Afghans to prepare for the assault on Tora Bora, on November 18 Berntsen sent an eight-man team to pursue bin Laden. The battle for Tora Bora, and what appeared to the climax of the hunt for Osama bin Laden, was about to begin.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
"My Fond Memories of Bin Laden"
ABC News reports al-Qa'ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has just released a new video dedicated to remembering the "human side of Osama bin Laden."
No, really.
The two great quotes from the story are Zawahiri recalling: "People probably don't know, they remember the lion of Islam threatening America and Bush, but people don't know that he was a very delicate, nice, shy man." And later: "He was known for crying and tearing up very easily."
No, really.
The two great quotes from the story are Zawahiri recalling: "People probably don't know, they remember the lion of Islam threatening America and Bush, but people don't know that he was a very delicate, nice, shy man." And later: "He was known for crying and tearing up very easily."
Friday, November 4, 2011
"SEAL Target Geronimo"
The Daily Telegraph previews a forthcoming book on the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden by former SEAL Team Six commander Chuck Pfarrer. Understandably, the book is being sold as a groundbreaking account of the operation that contradicts previous claims by the Obama administration, specifically:
The problem with books such as Pfarrer's is that there is virtually no way to either verify or disprove his claims. Pfarrer says he has talked to DevGru operators who were on the mission, and I have no reason to doubt him. But because of their non-disclosure forms, there is no way to confirm any details with the two dozen SEALs who executed the mission. Consequently, whether accurate or not Pfarrer's account can never rise above the level of hearsay. [Although if he did talk to SEAL Team 6 members, than his hearsay is at least better than Nicholas Schmidle's New Yorker piece, which while possibly accurate, was still based on second-hand reports rather than interviews with the SEALs themselves].
Oh, and yes, this critique aside, I have already pre-ordered my copy, and will hopefully publish a review of "SEAL Team Geronimo" when it arrives.
- Pfarrer says the SEALs did fast rope on to the compound's roof before Black Hawk crashed, whereas every previous account says it crashed inside the compound and then disgorged the commandos; and
- Pfarrer claims bin Laden was killed 90 seconds into the raid, not after a lengthy firefight.
The problem with books such as Pfarrer's is that there is virtually no way to either verify or disprove his claims. Pfarrer says he has talked to DevGru operators who were on the mission, and I have no reason to doubt him. But because of their non-disclosure forms, there is no way to confirm any details with the two dozen SEALs who executed the mission. Consequently, whether accurate or not Pfarrer's account can never rise above the level of hearsay. [Although if he did talk to SEAL Team 6 members, than his hearsay is at least better than Nicholas Schmidle's New Yorker piece, which while possibly accurate, was still based on second-hand reports rather than interviews with the SEALs themselves].
Oh, and yes, this critique aside, I have already pre-ordered my copy, and will hopefully publish a review of "SEAL Team Geronimo" when it arrives.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Today in Manhunting History -- October 7, 2001: Operation Enduring Freedom Begins
In the wake of the September 11th attacks, the Bush administration realized that in order to get to Osama bin Laden the United States and its allies would have to fight through the Taliban, who had rejected numerous entreaties to turn the Saudi over to U.S. custody or to administer justice themselves. On October 7, the U.S. air campaign against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban began as bombers, strike aircraft, and cruise missiles pounded targets. By the end of November, F-14s, F-16s, F/A-18s, B-52s, and B-1Bs had dropped approximately ten thousand bombs in Afghanistan.
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