A great piece today by AP writers Adam Goldman and Matt Apuzzo on the unnamed CIA analyst who led the hunt for Osama bin Laden. The article illustrates just how much uncertainty there was in identifying the Abbottabad compound as bin Laden's hideout, what a significant risk the Agency took in presenting this to the White House as such, and yes, the guts it took for President Obama to order the raid that killed the Saudi mastermind.
It also illustrates the importance of perseverance in manhunting. Excluding the hunt for bin Laden, which at 13 years was an obvious outlier, the average successful strategic manhunt lasts 18 months. According to Goldman and Apuzzo, it took three years from the decision to focus on Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti before he turned up on a National Security Agency wiretap. Again, only the four-year pursuit of Pablo Escobar lasted longer than the lag in waiting for a lead in the bin Laden hunt.
It is a pity -- albeit an understandable one -- that a hero such as "John" should remain anonymous for the rest of his life.
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