Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Meanwhile, in Pakistan . . .

Two potentially big stories out of the al Qa'ida camp.

First, CNN reports that former Egyptian special forces officer Saif al-Adel has been chosen "caretaker" of al Qa'ida in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death.  Al-Adel's reputation is that he is perhaps al-Qa'ida's sharpist strategist, but that because he spent so many years out of the spotlight under "house arrest" in Iran (which conveniently didn't get in the way of planning attacks) he is not considered to be among the terrorist organization's more charasmatic leaders.  This would be ironic, if true, since lack of charisma is generally the explanation for why bin Laden's long-time deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri might not automatically ascend to the number one position.

Second, according to Bill Roggio at the excellent Long War Journal, the "senior al-Qa'ida commander" recently arrested by the Pakistanis in Karachi is actually a courier who relayed messages between bin Laden and Zawahiri.  Initially, this announcement was treated skeptically.  Many believed that Muhammed Ali Qasim Yaqub's importance was being inflated in order to demonstrate Pakistan was doing something about al-Qa'ida.  But as the intelligence chain that lead to bin Laden's killing demonstrates, couriers can prove invaluable as sources of intelligence in manhunts. 

Given that the arrest occurred on May 4, it raises an interesting question: if al-Qa'ida's leadership knew one the key links between bin Laden and Zawahiri were in custody, especially in the wake of the Abbottabad raid, could this have played a role in the choice of al-Adel rather than al-Zawahiri as "caretaker"? 

In other words, maybe AQ does not have a lot of faith that Zawahiri will be around for much longer, and doesn't want him in too prominent a position just in case? 

Just a thought.

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